With the 2025-26 NBA season entering the final month of play, the MVP race is still closely contested, in part because of how the 65-game rule might impact top candidates.
The rule, which has been in place since 2023, would disqualify any player from postseason awards who fail to log the requisite playing time of 65 regular season games. Due to injuries and other factors, that leaves three-time MVP Nikola Jokic, reigning MVP Shai-Gilgeous Alexander, and Defensive Player of the Year favorite Victor Wembanyama in danger of being left off the ballots this April.
If the panel of 100 media members is unable to vote for those top three candidates, all of which play in the stronger Western Conference, then Cade Cunningham and Jaylen Brown stand to become prime candidates as the leaders of the top two seeds in the East.
Below, we take a look at the updated NBA MVP odds market and discuss the implications if any of the lead candidates were to miss more time.
2025-26 NBA MVP Odds
NBA MVP Candidates
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder 
-250
The Thunder got off to a record-breaking pace this season thanks to SGA’s heroics. Despite missing 12 games (nine due to an abdominal strain), the reigning MVP is second to Tyrese Maxey in total points this season. If the Thunder lock up the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference and SGA doesn’t miss six more games, he seems to be in line to repeat. SGA is back from his nine-game absence since Friday, Feb. 27 and played 34 minutes in a win over Denver.
Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets +475
A perennial MVP candidate, Jokic is the most likely of the lead contenders to get knocked off the board due to the 65-game rule. The big Serbian missed 16 games with a knee injury and can only miss one of Denver’s 22 remaining games to stay eligible. Jokic has a strong case as the NBA leader in rebounds (12.6) and assists (10.5) per game, as well as certain advance metrics like Value Over Replacement Player.
Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons +1000
The Pistons are 29-7 against the Eastern Conference and are slightly ahead of the Thunder for the top overall record in the league this year. Posting the best record would put their best player in the top tier of MVP candidates and Cunningham is implied to be the favorite if SGA and Jokic are both disqualified. The fifth-year guard is scoring at the most efficient level of his career, yet still ranks 15th among the NBA in Player Efficiency Rating while leading the league in turnovers.
Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs +2500
Wemby’s eligibility for MVP and Defensive Player of the Year is a bit foggier than other stars. He’s missed 14 games and played under 20 minutes in one of his 45 appearances. The 65-game rule includes a maximum of two games played between 15-20 minutes, so he can only miss three of the remaining 23 games, and must log at least 20 minutes in all of his appearances.
The last Defensive Player of the Year odds had Wemby (-600) as a massive favorite and a no-brainer choice if he remains eligible for awards. Chet Holmgren (+500) and Rudy Gobert (+2500) are next on odds boards and they could become the de factor winner similar to how Evan Mobley earned DPOY last season due to Wemby’s season-ending injury.
Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics +6500
Boston has been arguably the biggest surprise of the season by posting the second-best record in the Eastern Conference without Jayson Tatum (Achilles). Brown has leveled up this season and Joe Mazzulla (+500) is among the favorites for Coach of the Year because of how the Celtics have exceeded expectations. If a few of the MVP candidates listed with shorter odds become ineligible, Brown could be on a short list for voters.
